تحلیل تعامل و اولویت‌بندی علل اقتصادی فرار سرمایه از ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)

2 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه امام صادق (ع). تهران، ایران

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی، ارزیابی و رتبه بندی علل و عوامل فرار سرمایه از کشور از طریق پیمایش در جامعه‌ای متشکل از مدیران، اساتید، نخبگان و کارشناسان مباحث سرمایه و سرمایه‌گذاری، به دنبال راهبردهایی است تا زمینه ماندگاری سرمایه در داخل کشور را تقویت نماید. در این مقاله پس از مروری بر مطالعات و مبانی انجام گرفته در این حوزه و با تکیه بر روش کتابخانه‌ای، مجموعه دهگانه علل اقتصادی فرارسرمایه احصا شدند. به منظور ارزیابی جایگاه هر عامل، مبتنی بر مدلسازی ساختاری-تفسیری، با استفاده از نمودارMICMAC این نتیجه به دست آمد که هیچ یک از عوامل به عنوان متغیر وابسته شناخته‌نشده‌است اما دو عامل«مشکلات نقل و انتقال وجوه و افتتاح حساب در فضای بین الملل» و «سیستم دو نرخی ارز در کشور» متغیرهای مستقلی هستند که وابستگی پایین اما میزان نفوذ بالایی دارند. دو مولفه خودمختار و 6 مولفه پیوندی نیز شناسایی شده‌اند. در نهایت و به منظور رتبه‌بندی و اولویت‌دهی مجموع علل اقتصادی فرار سرمایه از کشور از روش تحلیل فرایند شبکه‌ای استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که بالاترین اولویت عوامل فرار سرمایه از ایران به‌ترتیب متعلق است به «پایین بودن بازده سرمایه گذاری در داخل و در مقابل مشوق های پرسود پذیرنده سرمایه در خارج»، «ریسک‌های بالای مالی و اقتصادی، عدم امکان پوشش مناسب ریسک»، «مشکلات مربوط به اخذ اعتبارات (از جمله نرخ بهره دستوری، سهمیه بندی، عدم تامین اعتبارات مالی مصوب)»، «مشکلات در پیگیری ایده ها و برنامه ها و فرایندهای پیچیده آغاز کسب و کار» و «درجه آزادی پایین و مشکلات صادرات و واردات». در نهایت به سیاست‌ها و راهبردهایی پرداخته شد تا زمینه کنترل فرارسرمایه فراهم شود که از جمله آن‌ها می‌توان به ایجاد محیط اقتصادی مطمئن و با ثبات و همچنین اتخاذ سیاست‌های معتبر کلان اقتصادی همراه با نرخ‌های بهره مناسب اشاره کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Interaction and Prioritization of Economic Determinants of Capital Flight from Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sajad Rajabi 1
  • Mohammadhadi Hashemifarid 2
1 Imam Sadiq University
2 PhD. Student in Economics, Economics Faculty, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This study is carried out to identify, evaluate and rank the causes and factors of capital flight in Iran, derived from ideas of a group of experts in the capital and investment field, including managers, scholars, and other elites. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and duration of data collection, considered a descriptive-survey. After reviewing the literature, a set of ten economic causes for the capital flight were identified. After the collected data's fuzzy expression, its de-fuzzy numbers are considered the DEMATEL matrix's direct effect. Using this technique, the indirect effects matrix and total effects were calculated. To evaluate each factor's position, based on Interpretation Structural Modeling (ISM), the MICMAC chart was derived, and the results indicated that none of the elements were recognized as dependent variables. Among these, "problems of transferring funds and opening an account in the international framework" and "the dual exchange rate system in the country" are independent variables with low dependence but high penetration. Two autonomous elements and the six linkages are also identified. Finally, through Analytical Network Process (ANP) method, all economic causes of the country's capital flight were ranked. The results show that the highest priority of capital flight in Iran is "low investment return in Iran, and on the contrary, high-profit incentives for investment," "high financial and economic risks, inappropriate risk hedging," "Fundraising obstacles (including fixed interest rates, quotations, failure to provide allocated financial credits)," "problems to establish ideas and business plans, and complex processes of setting up a business" and "low degree of economic openness and problems to export and import" respectively. Finally, strategies to address the capital flight were addressed, including creating a secure and stable economic space and adopting valid macroeconomic policies with appropriate interest rates.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Capital flight
  • Fuzzy DEMATEL
  • Analytical Network Process
  • Interpretive-Structural Modeling

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 07 دی 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 06 بهمن 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 06 اسفند 1399

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