تحلیل خوشه ای جایگاه ایران در جهان مبتنی بر توسعه پایدار اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری مدیریت دولتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران

2 دانشیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکز

چکیده

توسعه اقتصادی شامل فرآیند و خط مشی هایی است که در یک جامعه به منظور رفاه اقتصادی، سیاسی و اجتماعی مردم، به کار گرفته می شود. به منظور بررسی وضعیت توسعه اقتصادی در کشور و تعیین جایگاه ایران در بین دیگر کشورهای جهان، شاخص های اقتصادی ارائه شده بر روی سایت بانک جهانی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت، که با بکارگیری روش دلفی و استفاده از نظر خبرگان، 8 شاخص در وضعیت توسعه پایدار ایران، موثر شناخته شد. به منظور بررسی توسعه پایدار اقتصادی بر مبنای هشت شاخص منتخب (تولید ناخالص داخلی GDP))؛ صادرات کالا؛ واردات کالا؛ پس انداز ناخالص؛ درآمد سرانه؛ مالیات بر درآمد، سود و سود سرمایه؛ نقدینگی بخش خصوصی؛ قدرت خرید برابر)، دیتاها از بانک جهانی برای 186 کشور جهان، استخراج گردید. هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی وضعیت ایران بر مبنای هشت شاخص منتخبِ حوزه اقتصادی و تعیین جایگاه ایران در بین دیگر کشورهای جهان، با استفاده از تکنیک خوشه بندی؛ و سپس شناسایی شبیه ترین کشورها در طی 18 سال گذشته با وضعیت توسعه پایدار اقتصادی در ایران، است. یافته های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد، کشور ایران از منظر شاخص های اقتصادی توسعه پایدار بیشترین هم خوشه گی را با کشورهای اندونزی، ویتنام، سائوتومه و پرنسیپ دارد که 13 بار در طی سال های 1996 تا 2016، در یک گروه قرار گرفتند؛ و 7 بار با کشور نیجریه در یک خوشه قرار گرفته است؛ و با کشور کلمبیا و پاراگوئه 6 بار هم خوشه بوده است. در پایان بر مبنای یافته های پژوهش پیشنهادهایی برای پژوهش های آتی ارائه شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Cluster Analysis of Iran’s Global Position Based on Sustainable Economic Development Framework

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mona Ahani 1
  • Mohammad Ali Afshar Kazemi 2
1 Ph. D, Department of Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Economic development refers to the processes and policies that a society employs to ensure its citizens' economic, political, and social well-being. To assess Iran's economic development status and global ranking, the World Bank determined eight indicators effective in assessing Iran's sustainable economic development status using the Delphi method and expert opinions, among other methods. The indicators are Gross National Product (GDP); merchandise exports; merchandise imports; gross savings; GDP per capita; taxes on income, profits, and capital gains; broad money growth; and PPP conversion factor. The purpose of this research is to investigate Iran's economic status and global position using these indicators and the clustering technique; Then it identifies the most similar countries in the last 18 years to Iran. The results showed that Iran has been co-clustered mostly with Indonesia, Vietnam, Sao Tomé and Príncipe, i.e., 13 times between 1996 and 2016; seven times with Nigeria, and six times with Colombia and Paraguay. Following research findings, a number of policy recommendations are presented

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sustainable Development
  • Economic Development
  • World Bank
  • Iran
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