Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies have emerged as an important option for decarbonizing energy-intensive industries, particularly steel. However, their development is subject to technological, economic, infrastructural, and political uncertainties. This study aims to identify plausible futures for the development of CCUS technologies in Iran’s steel industry. First, 38 factors influencing their future development were identified through environmental scanning and a systematic review of the scientific literature and classified into six dimensions: social, technological, economic, environmental, political–legal, and value-related. The factors were then assessed by 26 academic and industry participants based on two independent criteria: importance and uncertainty. Seven key factors with mean scores of at least 4 on both criteria were identified. Through analytical–conceptual aggregation, these factors were organized into four driving forces: the sustainability and competitiveness of the energy economy in the steel industry; financial capacity and support for the transition to low-carbon technologies; carbon governance and the economic rationale for emissions reduction; and the degree of integration or isolation of Iran’s steel industry from the global system. Cross-impact consistency analysis using ScenarioWizard was conducted to examine relationships among alternative states of the driving forces and identify internally consistent future configurations. The analysis identified two boundary scenarios. Subsequently, four scenarios were structured along two differentiating axes: the level of domestic institutional, financial, and policy support, and the intensity of pressure from the global carbon regime and steel market. The scenarios were labeled Controlled Green Transition, External Pressure–Internal Inability, Domestic Opportunity Creation without External Pressure, and Continuation of the Status Quo. The findings indicate that CCUS development in Iran’s steel industry depends not only on technological availability but also on the interaction among energy infrastructure, financial and institutional capacity, carbon governance, and access to global technologies, capital, and markets.