دوراهی مهاجرت‌های اقلیمی؛ تحلیلی بر رویکردهای سازگاری یا ناسازگاری در برابر اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی

نوع مقاله : ویژه‌نامه «سیاستگذاری مهاجرت‌»

نویسنده

پژوهشگر رصدخانه مهاجرت ایران، پژوهشکده سیاستگذاری دانشگاه صنعتی شریف

چکیده

مهاجرت بالقوه میلیون‌ها نفر در اثر تغییرات اقلیمی در حال حاضر یکی از بحث برانگیزترین پیامدهای ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی است و به طور فزاینده‌ای به یک مسئله مهم برای دولت‌ها و سیاست گذاران تبدیل شده است. در این راستا دیدگاه‌های مختلفی در خصوص مهاجرت‌های ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی مطرح می‌شود: عده‌ای از محققان بر این باورند که مهاجرت نشان دهنده شکست در سازگاری با محیط در حال تغییر است. در مقابل عده‌ای از محققان معتقدند که مهاجرت می‌تواند به عنوان یک استراتژی پیشگیرانه برای مقابله با تغییرات اقلیمی مطرح شود. در این پژوهش تلاش شده است تا با رویکرد توصیفی- تحلیلی و با استناد به نظریه‌های کثرت گرایی و اقلیت گرایی به بررسی دیدگاه‌های مختلف در زمینه مهاجرت‌های اقلیمی و سازگاری و ناسازگاری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی پرداخته شده و در همین ارتباط چارچوب مفهومی متناسب با این دیدگاه‌ها ارائه شود. نتایج بررسی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که در نظر گرفتن مهاجرت به عنوان یکی از اقدامات سازگاری و یا ناسازگاری جوامع، چالش‌های زیادی را برای برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‌گذاران ایجاد می‌کند که بسیاری از این چالش‌ها از طریق استراتژی‌های دقیق قابل کنترل است. در این راستا، سیاستگذاران بایستی قوانین و مقرراتی را وضع کنند که توانایی بازیگران را برای سازگاری با تأثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی تقویت کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate Migration Dilemma; Migration as an Adaptation or Maladaptation Strategy

نویسنده [English]

  • صمدی Samadi
researcher. Iran migration observatory. Sharif University of Technology
چکیده [English]

The potential migration of millions of people due to adverse impacts of climate change is one of the most important issues for governments and policy makers. In this regard, there are various divergent views in the theoretical approach to climate- induced migration: Some scholars believe that migration indicates a failure to adapt to climate change. On the other hand, other scholars believe that migration can be used as a preventive strategy to deal with climate change. By using descriptive-analytical research method, in this study, we attempt to investigate various divergent views in climate migration theories by focusing on the maximalist and minimalist approaches. In addition, we present different climate adaptation strategies taken by policy makers in order to combat adverse consequence of climate changes in other countries. Finally, we analyze various evidences of climate- related movements in Iran and the policies and strategies has been taken by the government regarding to climate adaptation. In general, considering migration as an adaptation or maladaptation strategies creates many challenges for planners and policy makers, which can be controlled through precise strategies. In this regard, policy makers should apply strategies that strengthen the ability of actors to adapt to adverse impacts of climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Migration
  • Climate change
  • Adaptation or maladaptation
  • maximalist and minimalist theories
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