تحلیل گزینه‌های سیاستی برای توسعهٔ صادرات فرش دست‌باف ایران با رویکرد پویایی سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموختهٔ دکتری مدیریت (سیستم)، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانش‌آموختهٔ دکتری مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

‌اهمیت صادرات غیر نفتی و نقش آن در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی کشورها همواره به عنوان یکی از موضوعات مهم اقتصادی مورد توجه محققان قرار گرفته است. توجه به توسعه صادرات فرش دستباف ایران به عنوان مهم‌ترین کالای صادراتی غیر نفتی می‌تواند کشور را در راه رسیدن به یک اقتصاد صادراتی منطقی کمک نماید. در این پژوهش با استفاده از مـدل سـازی دینـامیکی در قالب روش تحلیل پویایی های سیستم، مسئله صادرات فرش دستباف ایران در ابعاد گوناگون مـدل شـده و بـا اسـتفاده از شـبیه سـازی رفتاری در محیط نرم افزار Vensim، مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. مدل پیشنهادی پژوهش پدیـده صادرات فرش دستباف را توصیف نموده و با استفاده از شبیه سازی، رفتار آن را در افق زمانی 10 سال آینده پیش بینی کرده است. در ادامه پس از تایید اعتبار ساختاری و رفتاری مدل، با آزمون راهکارهای مختلف در محیط شبیه سازی، سیاست‌ها و راهکارهایی برای بهبود و توسعه صادرات فرش دستباف ایران ارائه گردیده است که این سیاست‌ها شامل توسعه فرآیند بازاریابی الکترونیکی موثر، ایجاد شبکه‌های متمرکز نظارتی بر روی فعالیت‌های تعاونی‌ها و کارگاه‌های بافندگی، اعطای تسهیلات و توسعه‌ی برنامه‌های آموزشی به منظور ارتقای سطح مهارت طراحان، بافندگان و تجار می‌باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The analysis of policy options for the development of Iran's carpet exports with system dynamics approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • samira loghman Estarki 1
  • fatemeh mojibian 2
1 ph.D pardis farabi, tehran university
2 tarbiatmodares uni
چکیده [English]

The importance of non-oil exports and its role in country’s economic growth has been considered as one of the most important economic issues by researchers. Considering the development of Iran’s handmade carpet export as the biggest non-oil export, can help the country to achieve a reasonable export economy. In this research, Iran's carpet export has been analyzed, in different levels, using dynamic modeling in Vensim Software at the form of system dynamics analysis. The proposed model described the phenomenon of handmade carpet export and using simulation process, its behavior has been predicted in next 10 years. Then, after structural and behavioral validation of model, using different strategies in simulated environment, policies and strategies to develop Iran's carpet exports has been provided, that these solutions include the development of effective e-commerce process, creating a centralized network monitoring on cooperative companies and carpet workshops, Facility assignment and the development of training programs to enhance the skills of designers, weavers and traders.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • System Dynamics Analysis
  • Handmade Carpet Export
  • Policy Making
  • Dynamic Modeling
  • Simulation
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