بررسی اثر عوامل درونی و بیرونی بر بازگشت ایرانیان خارج از کشور طی سالهای ١٣٩٣ تا ١٤٠١

نوع مقاله : ویژه‌نامه «سیاستگذاری مهاجرت‌»

نویسندگان

1 سیاستگذاری علم و فناوری، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران

2 کارشناسی ارشد پژوهش علوم اجتماعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

مهاجران بازگشتی می‌توانند به کاهش اثرات منفی مهاجرت و توسعه جوامع مبدأ کمک کنند. این پژوهش با هدف بررسی اثر عوامل درونی و بیرونی بر بازگشت ایرانیان خارج از کشور به روش ترکیبی انجام شده است. مقایسه فراز و فرود‌های شاخص‌های بازگشت (نرخ بازگشت و نرخ تصمیم به بازگشت) و پیشران‌های بازگشت طی سال‌های 1393 تا 1401 ، حاکی از آن هستند که همواره دو عامل درونی «خانواده» و «احساس میهن‌پرستی» مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های اثرگذار بر جریان بازگشتی به کشور بوده‌اند؛ اما در اثر عوامل بیرونی دو نقطه عطف در سال‌های مورد بررسی وجود داشته است. در سال 96-1395 نرخ بازگشت ایرانیان (بازگشت داوطلبانه متخصصان ایرانی و بازگشت داوطلبانه و ادغام مجدد حمایت شده مهاجران ایرانی)، همزمان با امضای توافق‌نامه هسته‌ای و بهبود چشم‌انداز سیاسی و اقتصادی کشور در اثر امید به رفع تحریم‌ها، به عنوان یک عامل جاذب قدرتمند در کشور مبدأ، افزایش یافته است. در سال 1400-1399 نیز نرخ بازگشت داوطلبانه متخصصان ایرانی به دلیل بروز پاندمی کرونا و افزایش نارضایتی از شرایط در کشور میزبان افزایش قابل توجهی یافته است، درحالی‌که بازگشت داوطلبانه و ادغام مجدد حمایت‌شده مهاجران ایرانی نه تنها افزایش نیافته، بلکه روند نزولی نیز یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of internal and external factors on the return of Iranian migrants during 2014 to 2022

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zohreh Rabiee 1
  • Melika Soleimanikhoo 2
1 Science and technology policy/ Graduate School of Management and Economic/ Sharif University of Technology/ Tehran/ Iran
2 Master of social research, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Returnees can help reduce the negative effects of migration and develop the origin countries. This research investigates the effect of internal and external determinants on the return of Iranian migrants using mixed method. The analysis of the fluctuations of return frequency, return decision, and return drivers among Iranians during the years 2013 to 2020, indicate that "family" and "patriotism" are the most important internal factors influencing the return flow to the country. Meanwhile, the return flow of Iranians (including the voluntary return of Iranian professionals and assisted voluntary return and reintegration of Iranians) has undergone two significant turning points influenced by external determinants. Firstly, the return frequency increased in 2016 due to the nuclear agreement between Iran and G5, and the expectation of the removal of sanctions, which led to the improvement of the country's political and economic prospects. Second, during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, while the return frequency of Iranian professionals increased significantly due to dissatisfaction with the conditions in the host country, the assisted voluntary return of Iranian migrants indicate a downward trend.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Return migration
  • return decision
  • assisted voluntary return and reintegration
  • Covid-19 pandemic
  • diaspora
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