Estimating the Impacts of COVID-19 on Iran Economy: Modelling Seven Scenarios

Document Type : Original research


1 SPRI, Sharif University of Technology

2 PhD Student, Imam Sadiq University


The emergence of pandemics is generally seen as a shock to the economic system because its mode of entry into economic interactions and relationships is exogenous. Therefore it is essential to classify the channels of this phenomenon, and this section offers a brief description of those channels. Naturally, with mobility restrictions, the closure of many educational and non-educational institutions, the reduction of business hours, the supply of goods and services are reduced. Besides, the economy's final demand, including household, government, nonprofit organizations, demand for investment, and demand for corporate warehouses, is mostly that. The third axis of economic power is a marked reduction in imports due to limitations on its foreign operations. Exports will be affected by the disease, as will imports. The demand-driven Leontief model is often used to integrate shocks from imports and exports. The internal symmetric Input-Output table is used instead of the traditional Input-Output table, to integrate export and import into the design. The generalized partial hypothetical extraction model is often used to calculate supply and demand shocks by changing the final demand vector.


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