Estimating the Impacts of COVID-19 on Iran Economy: Modelling Seven Scenarios

Document Type : Original research

Authors

1 SPRI, Sharif University of Technology

2 PhD Student, Imam Sadiq University

Abstract

The emergence of pandemics is generally seen as a shock to the economic system because its mode of entry into economic interactions and relationships is exogenous. Therefore it is essential to classify the channels of this phenomenon, and this section offers a brief description of those channels. Naturally, with mobility restrictions, the closure of many educational and non-educational institutions, the reduction of business hours, the supply of goods and services are reduced. Besides, the economy's final demand, including household, government, nonprofit organizations, demand for investment, and demand for corporate warehouses, is mostly that. The third axis of economic power is a marked reduction in imports due to limitations on its foreign operations. Exports will be affected by the disease, as will imports. The demand-driven Leontief model is often used to integrate shocks from imports and exports. The internal symmetric Input-Output table is used instead of the traditional Input-Output table, to integrate export and import into the design. The generalized partial hypothetical extraction model is often used to calculate supply and demand shocks by changing the final demand vector.

Keywords


  • Albulescu, Claudiu. (2020). Coronavirus and financial volatility: 40 days of fasting and fear.
  • Albulescu, Claudiu. (2020). Coronavirus and oil price crash: A note.
  • Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk. (2020). Coronavirus Spreads and Bitcoin's 2020 Rally: Is There a Link? 10.13140/RG.2.2.16003.86561.
  • Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Do COVID-19 and crude oil prices drive the US economic policy uncertainty?" Papers 2003.07591, arXiv.org. https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2003.07591.html
  • Duan, Hongbo & Wang, Shouyang & Yang, Cuihong. (2020). Coronavirus-limit the short-term economic damage. Nature. 578. 10.1038/d41586-020-00522-6.
  • Duan, Hongbo & Wang, Showyang & Yang, Cuihong. (2020). Supplementary Information Coronavirus: limit short-term economic damage.
  • Evans, Olaniyi. (2020). Socio-economic impacts of novel coronavirus: The policy solutions.
  • Fetzer, Thiemo & Hensel, Lukas & Hermle, Johannes & Roth, Christopher. (2020). Perceptions of Coronavirus Mortality and Contagiousness Weaken Economic Sentiment.
  • Hale, Thomas, Sam Webster, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, and Beatriz Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government.
  • Mckibbin, Warwick & Fernando, Roshen. (2020). the economic impact of COVID-19.
  • Mckibbin, Warwick & Fernando, Roshen. (2020). the Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios.
  • Miller, Ronald E., and Peter D. Blair. Input-output analysis: foundations and extensions. Cambridge university press, 2009.‏
  • What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios. (2020) 10.21034/sr.595.
  • Yue, Xiao-Guang & Shao, Xue-Feng & Li, Rita Yi Man & Crabbe, Michael & Mi, Lili & Hu, Siyan & Baker, Julien & Liang, Gang. (2020). Risk Management Analysis for Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China. 10.3390/jrfm13020022.