Document Type : Original research
Authors
1
Ph.D. Student of Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2
Professor, Department of Futures Studies ,Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.(Corresponding Author)
3
Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran .
4
Assistant Professor, Department of Futures Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
5
Assistant Professor, Department of industrial managment, Faculty of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
Abstract
The Fourth Industrial Revolution, driven by emerging technologies, has created profound transformations in the field of education. Consequently, universities must identify the factors influencing their future pathways and take steps toward adaptation and innovation to ensure long-term success. Accordingly, this study, by focusing on the identification and analysis of the key driving forces shaping the future of Iranian public universities through a futures studies approach, seeks to provide a comprehensive picture that enables higher education policymakers to utilize its findings in revising and transforming policies related to the requirements of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. From a purpose perspective, this research is developmental–applied, and in terms of nature, it is descriptive–analytical with an exploratory orientation. A mixed-methods design (qualitative–quantitative) was employed. In the first phase, environmental scanning and semi-structured interviews with experts were conducted, followed by thematic analysis using MAXQDA software, through which 26 major drivers were extracted and categorized based on the STEEPLED model. Subsequently, structural analysis using MICMAC software was performed to assess mutual influences and classify the drivers. The results revealed that among the 26 drivers identified within the context of emerging technologies in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, three are influential, five are bidirectional, twelve are dependent, and six are reactive. The fact that all three influential and dominant drivers belong to the political category clearly underscores the unparalleled role of the country’s political decision-making structure and macro-level governance in shaping the digital transformation of public universities. This reality demonstrates that macro-political orientations function not only as accelerating forces but also as decisive determinants in shaping the future of the higher education system.
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