The analysis of policy options for the development of Iran's carpet exports with system dynamics approach

Document Type : Original research


1 ph.D pardis farabi, tehran university

2 tarbiatmodares uni


The importance of non-oil exports and its role in country’s economic growth has been considered as one of the most important economic issues by researchers. Considering the development of Iran’s handmade carpet export as the biggest non-oil export, can help the country to achieve a reasonable export economy. In this research, Iran's carpet export has been analyzed, in different levels, using dynamic modeling in Vensim Software at the form of system dynamics analysis. The proposed model described the phenomenon of handmade carpet export and using simulation process, its behavior has been predicted in next 10 years. Then, after structural and behavioral validation of model, using different strategies in simulated environment, policies and strategies to develop Iran's carpet exports has been provided, that these solutions include the development of effective e-commerce process, creating a centralized network monitoring on cooperative companies and carpet workshops, Facility assignment and the development of training programs to enhance the skills of designers, weavers and traders.


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  • Receive Date: 31 May 2021
  • Revise Date: 07 October 2021
  • Accept Date: 16 October 2021
  • First Publish Date: 16 October 2021